Commodity Market Report

Global zinc long-term outlook Q1 2021

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The near-term outlook for the zinc market is dominated by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and the consequences of the actions of governments to contain and mitigate against its effects. Further out, as the global economy normalises, the key dynamic will be the performance of the world's zinc smelters, especially utilisation rates at China's smelters. We forecast that the refined market will be well supplied for the rest of the decade with a peak of stock days in 2027 of 69 declining to 56 days by the end of the decade. However, such inventory levels fall well short of the peak of 126 stock days seen after the financial crisis in 2008/2009. Read further in our latest Global zinc long-term outlook for details on our market balance and price forecasts out to 2040.

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

  • Price forecasts and refined market balances
  • The zinc market is facing substantial surpluses in the concentrate and metal markets for the medium term
  • Concentrate market balances table
  • Investor sentiment is expected to support the zinc price despite rising metal stocks
  • Requirement for new mine production
  • Cost price relationships are used to forecast long-term prices
  • Zinc mine reserves by type (% share)
  • Zinc mine production by type (% share)
  • Long term growth in zinc consumption will be driven by Asia
  • Global zinc consumption is dominated by China
  • Per capita zinc consumption growth will be modest
  • Structural shifts in zinc's first uses have resulted in a sharp decline in intensity of use
  • 20 more item(s)...

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global zinc long-term outlook Q1 2021

    PDF 1.25 MB