Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Valid 12Z Thu Oct 09 2025 - 12Z Sat Oct 11 2025

...Heavy rain and flash flooding risk to increase across the Southwest as
moisture from Tropical Cyclone Priscilla moves north...

...Coastal flooding, high surf, dangerous rip currents, and gusty winds
expected along the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts this week...

Although the system will continue to weaken west of the Baja Peninsula,
moisture from Tropical Cyclone Priscilla will spread northward, increasing
coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the Southwest and into the
Great Basin, heightening the risk of heavy rain and flash flooding. The
greater flash flood threat will begin today across southeastern
California, southwestern Arizona, southern Nevada, and southwestern Utah,
shifting eastward on Friday. Upper-level energy associated with Priscilla
will further elevate this risk as it moves across Arizona on Friday. This
threat will be particularly concerning for terrain-sensitive areas,
including burn scars, slot canyons, and urban regions.

In the eastern U.S., a front will linger across northern Florida and along
the Gulf Coast through the weekend, bringing daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms to Florida. Strong easterly winds along the Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic coasts will also heighten the potential for coastal impacts,
including flooding, heavy surf, and dangerous rip currents. By early
Saturday, an area of low pressure is expected to intensify off the Florida
coast before tracking northward later in the weekend.

Behind the front, much cooler, below-average temperatures will spread
across much of the eastern U.S. Highs today and Friday will generally
range from the 50s to 60s across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and
Northeast, with some warming expected in the Ohio Valley by Friday.
Morning lows dipping into the 30s have prompted Frost and Freeze
Advisories across parts of the Upper Midwest and interior Northeast for
Thursday morning, and for coastal New England southwestward through the
central Appalachians on Friday morning. In contrast, above-average
temperatures will prevail across much of the Plains and interior West,
with highs in the 70s and 80s, and some 90s in Texas and the Desert
Southwest. A slowly approaching Pacific system will bring cooler
conditions to the West Coast, with highs mainly in the 60s across the
north and 70s to the south.

Elsewhere, an upper-level disturbance and associated surface front will
bring a chance of showers to the Upper Midwest beginning late today and
continuing into the weekend. Meanwhile, a slow-moving Pacific system will
increase precipitation chances across the Pacific Northwest and northern
California today, spreading into the northern Great Basin and Rockies by
Friday. Some snow may mix in over the highest mountain peaks, although
significant accumulations are likely to hold off until the weekend.

Pereira

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php