Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Jun 07 2025 - 12Z Mon Jun 09 2025

...Severe weather expected from the southern Plains to the Carolinas
Saturday and across portions of the Central and Eastern U.S. on Sunday...

...Heavy showers capable of producing scattered flash flooding expected
across portions of the Mid-South and southern New England Saturday...

...Significant heat continues across the Gulf Coast states and builds in
the West through the weekend...


Deep moisture and strong surface heating along a wavy frontal boundary
will set the stage for numerous clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms
from the southern Plains eastward to the Carolinas today. These clusters
of storms will have the potential to produce swaths of damaging wind
gusts, particularly from the Mid-South to the southern Appalachians. To
highlight this threat, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a broad
Slight Risk (level 2/5) that stretches from south-central Oklahoma and
northeast Texas to the Carolinas. The Storm Prediction Center has also
outlined a targeted Enhanced Risk (level 3/5), mainly for portions of
eastern Oklahoma, central Arkansas, southern Tennessee, northern
Mississippi, northern Alabama, and northern Georgia. While strong and
damaging winds are the primary concerns from today's storms, large hail
and an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. On Sunday, the risk of
severe weather will generally remain across similar parts of the central
and eastern U.S.; however, severe thunderstorms will be the most likely
across southern Oklahoma, northern Texas, and the Ark-La-Tex late Sunday
afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100
mph, and very large hail are the greatest threats with these storms.
Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk
(level 3/5) to highlight this potential. 

In addition to severe weather hazards, the clusters of thunderstorms that
develop along the wavy frontal boundary will also be efficient rainfall
producers. Given plenty of moisture to work with and the potential for
storms to repeatedly track over the same areas multiple times, scattered
instances of flash flooding will be a concern, particularly across the
Mid-South. Storms will also be capable of downpours across parts of
southern New England as well. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) is forecast for
both areas to account for this favorable heavy rainfall setup. On Sunday,
similar to the greatest severe weather risk area, the highest flash flood
threat will shift to the southern Plains, where additional complexes of
drenching strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to move through.

Dangerous heat will continue through the weekend across the Gulf Coast
states where oppressive humidity ahead of a slow-moving frontal boundary
will combine with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s to create a large
area of Major to Extreme HeatRisk. Building heat will also be on the rise
across interior portions of the West, especially the Pacific Northwest,
where high temperatures nearing the triple digits will threaten records
Sunday into Monday. Farther south across the lower desert valleys of the
Southwest, high temperatures well into the 100s to 110s will make for a
scorching weekend with little relief in sight.    


Miller


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php