Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sat May 04 2024

Valid 00Z Sun May 05 2024 - 00Z Tue May 07 2024

...A deep upper low will bring heavy mountain snow and windy conditions
across a large portion of the western U.S. through the next couple of
days...

...A slight chance of severe thunderstorms across Texas and upper Midwest
into Sunday will shift into the central Plains by later on Monday...

...Critical fire danger is forecast for the southern Rockies...

A rather vigorous and deep upper-level low currently approaching the West
Coast will result in the next wave of active and stormy weather to quickly
sweep through the western U.S. and into the Great Plains during the next
couple of days.  Moderate to heavy rain and high-elevation heavy wet snow
are already reaching into the West Coast in earnest, especially across
central to northern California.  The precipitation will expand quickly
inland across the Great Basin and a good portion of the Pacific Northwest
through tonight, reaching into the northern Rockies on Sunday, followed by
the central Rockies on Monday.  This system will bring quite a bit of
wind, especially across southern California and Nevada through tonight,
from the Four Corners region to Wyoming on Sunday before overspreading
much of the High Plains on Monday.  Two feet or more of heavy wet snow is
expected to accumulate along the Cascades in Oregon, with a foot along the
Sierra Nevada, and a foot or more for portions of the northern Cascades,
Great Basin, as well as northern and central Rockies through Monday.  In
addition, severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central
Plains later on Monday ahead of a potent cold front.  Meanwhile, the
center of an elongated deep low pressure system is forecast to track
across the northern Plains with wind-swept rain impacting the northern
High Plains on Monday.

Meanwhile, across the eastern two-thirds of the country, the most active
weather will be found over Texas where strong to severe thunderstorms can
be expected through tonight as an upper-level disturbance arriving from
northern Mexico begins to interact with a stationary front.  Additional
energy setting up by the upper trough is expected to trigger another round
of strong to severe thunderstorms across central Texas to Oklahoma on
Sunday, before the potent cold front associated with the intensifying
elongated low shifts the focus of severe thunderstorms farther north
across the central Plains later on Monday.

Still farther east, some showers and possibly severe thunderstorms are
forecast across the Midwest to upper Mississippi Valley through tonight
near and ahead of a low pressure wave developing along a cold front.  This
system will advance eastward and gradually merge with the large area of
scattered rain and embedded thunderstorms over the eastern U.S. in
association with a back-door cold front.  These rain/showers will spread
farther northeast into New England on Sunday, and become more widely
scattered on Monday.  Meanwhile, the Mid-South will see a higher chance of
showers and thunderstorms on Monday.

The Mid-Atlantic northern and central Plains will be cool in contrast with
warm conditions over the High Plains and Ohio Valley.  Meanwhile, much
cooler weather will surge into and penetrate the western U.S. with the
arrival of the deep and vigorous upper trough along with windy and
inclement weather closer to the elongated low pressure system.  Finally, 
windy and dry conditions are forecast to raise the danger of wild fires
across the southern Rockies beginning on Sunday.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php