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Chinese leaders meet to set 2035 vision

  • Market: Coal, Crude oil, Petrochemicals
  • 30/10/20

Clean energy spending is likely to rise to meet China's carbon neutrality goal, while a shift to electric cars threatens fuel demand, write Kevin Foster and Karen Teo

The world's attention may be focused on Washington ahead of next week's US presidential elections, but another high-level political event taking place in Beijing is likely to prove much more significant for global energy markets.

More than 300 members of the Chinese Communist party's central committee met at the fifth plenum session on 26-29 October to chart the country's policy direction. The discussions, led by President Xi Jinping, focused on two key documents — the 14th five-year plan, which covers 2021-25, and a mid-term economic strategy called Vision 2035. The significance of this year's plenum for global energy markets has taken on far greater prominence following Xi's unexpected announcement last month that China is aiming to become carbon neutral by 2060.

Full details of the five-year plan are unlikely to be released until the national people's congress in March 2021. But some major themes are clear. The need to incorporate climate targets into the plan in the wake of Xi's 2060 pledge is likely to lead to a substantial increase in clean energy investments, potentially at the expense of coal. "We must accelerate the promotion of green and low-carbon development," the plenum concluded.

China is transitioning from a phase of rapid growth to one of higher-quality development, Xi says. Economic growth will continue to slow, with analysts expecting GDP targets — if they are set at all — to be around 4.5-5.5pc for 2021-25, down from 6.5pc in the 2016-20 plan. That will weigh on oil demand growth. But the government will also maintain its focus on urbanisation, including the creation of new megacities such as the Xiongan New Area near Beijing and the Greater Bay Area linking Hong Kong with Guangdong — helping to sustain infrastructure spending. China's urban population share is expected to rise by 10 percentage points to 70pc by 2035, equivalent to another 140mn people moving to cities.

This will all unfold under Xi's "dual circulation" strategy, under which China becomes more self-reliant and increases domestic consumption — something that may encourage Beijing to place greater emphasis on expanding domestic reserves and reducing its dependency on imports. Beijing wants to develop its technology base and reduce its reliance on US technology products, such as computer chips.

Balancing growth ambitions, domestic consumption and the carbon neutrality target will be a tough task, and one that could rely heavily on the development of new technologies. Cars running wholly on internal combustion engines may be effectively shut out of the Chinese market by 2035, with electric vehicles and hybrids accounting for all new sales by then, influential industry association the China Society of Automotive Engineers says. This threatens to slash China's 6mn b/d of gasoline and diesel demand, but could boost alternatives such as hydrogen.

Trump this, Washington!

The longer-term focus of this week's plenum discussions will not mask the immediate challenges facing China's leaders. Its external relations are at their most uncertain for decades, beset by US tariffs and increasingly aggressive efforts by Washington to pressure Beijing in the twilight of the Trump administration's first term. But Xi appears to have emerged from the turmoil of 2020 with his authority enhanced, helped by China's success in containing Covid-19. The Vision 2035 plans may further solidify Xi's position and help him maintain power well beyond the formal end of his second term in 2022 — in another contrast to the political uncertainty gripping the US.


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17/06/25

Israel says it killed Iran’s new top commander

Israel says it killed Iran’s new top commander

Dubai, 17 June (Argus) — Israel today said it has killed Iran's newly appointed top military commander, Ali Shadmani, in an airstrike on Tehran — days after it said it had eliminated his predecessor in the opening salvo of direct hostilities on 13 June. "For the second time in five days, the [Israel Defense Forces] IDF has eliminated Iran's war-time chief of staff, the regime's top military commander," the IDF said in a statement. "Ali Shadmani, Iran's senior-most military official and [Iranian Supreme Leader] Ali Khamenei's closest military advisor, was killed in an [air] strike in central Tehran, following precise intelligence," it added. Shadmani was appointed to lead Iran's military — including both the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the regular army — after his predecessor, Mohammad Bagheri, was killed in Israel's initial strikes on Tehran last Friday. Iran has not officially confirmed Shadmani's death. Crude futures rose today as markets tracked the escalating conflict. At 08:02 GMT, the Ice front-month August Brent contract was at $74.23/bl, up by $1/bl from its 16 June settlement. This marks the third direct military confrontation between Israel and Iran since October 2023, when Iran-backed Palestinian group Hamas launched an attack on Israel from Gaza. But the current round appears to be the most intense, and this time critical energy infrastructure has been targeted . Ceasefire confusion US president Donald Trump has denied that his early departure from the G7 summit was linked to ceasefire efforts between Israel and Iran, in response to comments by French president Emmanuel Macron. "Macron mistakenly said that I left the G7 Summit, in Canada, to go back to DC to work on a 'cease fire' between Israel and Iran," Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. "Wrong! He has no idea why I am now on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that." US defence secretary Pete Hegseth said in a televised interview that Trump still hopes to reach a nuclear deal with Iran, despite the ongoing conflict. "We are postured defensively in the region to be strong in pursuit of a peace deal. And we certainly hope that's what happens here," Hegseth said. Separately, Arab and Islamic countries issued a joint statement today calling for a halt to "Israeli hostilities against Iran" and urging the creation of a Middle East zone "free of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction". The statement also stressed the importance of protecting freedom of navigation and maritime security. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Two oil tankers collide off UAE coast


17/06/25
News
17/06/25

Two oil tankers collide off UAE coast

Dubai, 17 June (Argus) — Two vessels have collided off the coast of the UAE, the country's national guard said today, with at least one confirmed as a crude oil tanker. The collision occurred early on 17 June in the Sea of Oman, around 24 nautical miles off the port of Khor Fakkan on the UAE's east coast, according to the national guard. It identified one of the vessels as the Antigua and Barbuda-flagged Adalynn , a Suezmax crude tanker that had departed Fujairah and was en route to the Suez Canal, according to MarineTraffic data. The national guard said 24 crew members were evacuated and brought ashore at Khor Fakkan. The second vessel was not officially named, but market sources pointed to the Liberia-flagged Front Eagle , also a crude tanker, which had departed Khor Fakkan and was bound for Zhoushan, China. MarineTraffic data show both vessels are currently stationary, with the Front Eagle listed as "not under command." The incident comes a day after the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said it had received multiple reports of "increasing electronic interference" in the Mideast Gulf and strait of Hormuz. The interference is likely linked to the latest escalation between Israel and Iran, triggered by Israeli air and missile strikes on several Iranian military and nuclear sites on 13 June. Iran responded with ballistic missile and drone attacks on military targets in Israel, including the Kirya complex in Tel Aviv, which houses the defence ministry. The two sides have since exchanged missile fire with growing intensity, and critical infrastructure was hit over the weekend. By Nader Itayim and Elshan Aliyev Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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IEA raises forecast for 2030 liquids supply overhang


17/06/25
News
17/06/25

IEA raises forecast for 2030 liquids supply overhang

London, 17 June (Argus) — The IEA said today it still expects global liquids supply capacity to vastly surpass demand by the end of this decade, but made some sizeable adjustments to the balances of key consumers China and the US. In its medium-term Oil 2025 report, the IEA bumped up its 2030 liquids supply capacity forecast by almost 1mn b/d, to 114.7mn b/d. It forecasts actual supply to market at 107.2mn b/d in 2030. It still sees oil demand peaking in 2029 at 105.5mn, and falling by 50,000 b/d in 2030. The IEA said the slowing oil demand growth is caused by below-trend economic expansion, global trade tensions and a faster move away from oil in transport and power generation. The IEA sees virtually no oil demand growth in China between now and 2030, compared with an almost 1mn b/d increase in its projection made last year. It forecasts Chinese oil demand to peak at 16.95mn b/d in 2027 and fall to 16.66mn b/d by 2030, only just higher than 16.63mn b/d in 2024. Its previous projection for China's 2030 oil demand was 18.06mn b/d. The main reason for the downward adjustment is the country's rapidly expanding uptake of electric vehicles (EVs), driven by new policy initiatives, the IEA said. By contrast, the IEA now expects US oil demand to fall at a much slower rate between now and 2030. The watchdog sees US demand at 20.01mn b/d in 2030, around 1.1mn b/d higher than its previous forecast. US demand was 20.42mn b/d in 2024. The main reason for the upwards adjustment to 2030 US demand is higher than previously forecast economic growth, lower pump prices and slower expected EV adoption, the IEA said. In terms of supply, the IEA noted the pace of US liquids production growth is slowing because oil firms are scaling back investments in the face of lower oil prices. Still, the country remains the largest contributor to non-Opec+ growth between 2024 and 2030, which is forecast at 3.1mn b/d. Growth is dominated by NGLs and other non-crude liquids, the IEA said. The IEA said its forecasts are subject to substantial uncertainties, however, pointing to conflicts in the Middle East and ongoing trade negotiations. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Israel’s Haifa refinery shuts after Iran missile strike


17/06/25
News
17/06/25

Israel’s Haifa refinery shuts after Iran missile strike

London, 17 June (Argus) — Israel's 197,000 b/d Haifa refinery has halted operations after a missile strike by Iran damaged its power supply over the weekend of 14-15 June, operator Bazan said. Bazan had initially continued processing crude after the attack while shutting some secondary units. But it has now shut all units, citing significant damage to the power plant that supplies electricity to the refinery complex. The site also produces petrochemicals. The company said it is working with state utility Israel Electric Corporation to restore power to the site. Israel has no domestic crude production, leaving Bazan reliant on imports to supply the refinery. The country's only other refinery is in Ashdod, with a capacity of 84,000 b/d. Other energy infrastructure targeted since the conflict started late last week includes two key gas treatment facilities and oil storage tanks in Iran. Israel has also taken its Leviathan and Karish gas fields offline as a precaution. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Canada-US trade deal within 30 days: Carney


16/06/25
News
16/06/25

Canada-US trade deal within 30 days: Carney

Calgary, 16 June (Argus) — Canada and the US plan to strike a new trade deal within 30 days, Canadian prime minister Mark Carney said today after meeting with US president Donald Trump. Carney and Trump met at the G7 leaders' summit in Kananaskis, Alberta, to discuss a new economic and security relationship between the two countries, who have been locked in trade negotiations for months. "To that end, we agreed to pursue negotiations toward a deal within the coming thirty days," Carney said on X. A readout from the prime minister's office also highlighted further collaboration on critical minerals, gun and drug smuggling, illegal drugs, border security and possible areas of cooperation on defense. Canada has largely been able to counter Trump's on-again/off-again trade action but has not been able to convince Trump to back down on steep import tariffs on steel and aluminum. Trump on 4 June doubled US tariffs to 50pc on steel and aluminum imports — much of which come from Canada. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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